So… Should You Buy or Rent?

May 28

Should I Buy or Rent in the Florida Panhandle? Or Anywhere for that matter.

I see it constantly in local Facebook groups, and discussions. “We’re only here for one assignment. Should we buy or just rent?”

The honest answer is not flashy,,,,,, It depends.

It depends on your long-term plan, your risk tolerance, and how you view this assignment and location in the bigger picture of your life.

Let’s break it down. Real Estate and the Long Game

Real estate moves in cycles. Some years are hot. Some years are flat. Some pull back.

But zoom out far enough, and the trend has historically moved upward. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, U.S. home prices have averaged roughly 4 to 5 percent annual appreciation over the long term. That does not mean every four-year window performs the same. It does mean that over extended periods, real estate has generally rewarded patient owners. A four-year assignment is not long-term. An eight- or ten-year horizon starts to look different.

That distinction matters.

What About a Four-Year Window?

In recent years, we saw unusual appreciation nationally and here in the Florida Panhandle. From 2020 through 2024, prices rose significantly due to supply shortages and high demand. That kind of growth is not typical every cycle. If you buy and need to sell in exactly four years, your outcome depends heavily on market conditions at that moment. That is the risk of short-term ownership. The question becomes:

Are you buying for four years… or are you buying with options?

The Florida Panhandle Factor

Our market has some unique characteristics:

1. Military Stability

With Eglin AFB, Duke Field, 7th SFG, and Hurlburt Field nearby, this area has consistent military demand. PCS cycles create steady turnover, which helps support both resale and rental markets.

2. Lifestyle Demand

We are not just a military town. We are near the Gulf, 30A, Destin, and some of the most desirable beaches in the country. That lifestyle appeal attracts retirees, investors, and second-home buyers. That broad demand base can provide resilience compared to markets dependent on a single industry.

3. Strong Rental Market

Military families, contractors, and seasonal workers create steady rental demand. If you decide to keep the home when you PCS, you may have viable rental options. But and this is important, you must run the numbers carefully before assuming it will work.

The Inflation Conversation Most People Miss

Let’s talk about something simple. If your mortgage payment is 1,500 dollars today on a fixed-rate loan, that principal and interest payment does not change.

Now ask yourself,, will 1,500 dollars feel the same 20 years from now? Historically, inflation reduces purchasing power over time. The Federal Reserve targets long-term inflation around 2 percent annually. Rent, on the other hand, tends to move upward with inflation and market demand. Property taxes, insurance, and HOA dues can increase. But the core mortgage payment stays fixed. Over long periods, that fixed payment can become an advantage, especially at a lower interest rate. Did you know home interest rates were 12.5% back in the 1990’s!!

This is one reason real estate is often viewed as a hedge against inflation.

The Real Question: What Happens After Four Years?

This is where “it depends” becomes personal.

Ask yourself:

• Do we want to keep ties to this area?

• Could this become a rental?

• Would we come back someday?

• Are we building a long-term real estate portfolio?

• Or do we want to cut ties completely when we PCS?

If your goal is flexibility and simplicity, renting makes a lot of sense. You avoid maintenance, market risk, and landlord responsibilities.

If your goal is long-term wealth building and you are open to turning the property into a rental, buying could position you differently.

But that only works if the property makes sense as a rental on paper.

The Costs People Forget to Factor In

Buying is not just about appreciation.

You also need to consider:
• Closing costs
• Realtor fees when selling
• Maintenance and repairs
• Insurance, which in Florida requires serious attention
• Vacancy risk if you rent it later

A short holding period can be eaten up by transaction costs if appreciation does not materialize the way you expect.

This is why buying with a strict four-year exit plan carries more risk than buying with flexibility.

Renting Is Not “Throwing Money Away”

This is a mindset shift.

Renting buys you:

Flexibility
Predictability
Zero repair stress
Clean exits at PCS time

You are paying for simplicity. Sometimes that is worth it. Buying Is Not Automatically the Smarter Move

Buying gives you: